It’s still a fragile real estate world, but the trend is up – in a shaky, unpredictable way.
What that means is that not every segment of the market is experiencing the same return to health in the same way, at the same time, or for the same segments. Those of us in the industry are so busy trying to figure out what it means that we don’t know how it looks to the ‘real’ New Yorkers. That is, once we leave the ‘experts’ behind, do most people sense a boom is coming? Are they still hanging back, waiting on the sidelines – or at their poised to jump back in?
I’m hoping you can help me answer those questions.
Frankly, to me the current situation looks positive - mostly. Sellers are now pricing their residences appropriately, buyers are energized by rock-bottom interest rates, and real estate hiring is on the upswing; all signs of a more robust, raring-to-go climate. But how do we explain some strange inconsistencies?
Take the top tier of the market. Listing prices for super-chic residences seem to set – and break - new records every day. The latest offering is being listed for an eye-popping $52 million. The East Side duplex of the late Time Warner chairman Steve Ross, being sold by his widow , features eight bedrooms, 10 baths, six terraces, and two libraries. If it fetches the sought-after price tag, it will set a new high-water mark for NYC coops.
Still, amidst the chart-topping listings, inventory remains painfully thin. The number of available dwellings is down by 12 per cent from the same period last year. The resulting dearth of options is leaving apartment-seekers – many of whom are just now warily re-entering the market - vying for almost a thousand fewer places than last year. Well-priced apartments sell quickly, but there just aren’t enough around of them around to get the market sizzling.
Still, the real estate industry is apparently quite bullish on itself. The ‘Real Deal’ website recently reported that industry employers are ramping up their hiring efforts. The Director of the Center for Urban Real Estate at Columbia University, Vishaan Chakrabarti, characterized the real estate jobs situation as having “improved substantially from the last couple of years”.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics apparently agrees. Their statistics auger a 23 percent climb in real estate industry jobs through 2020.
All this brings me back to the future. Clearly there’s growth, but does it indicate a gradual return to pre-recession health or a different kind of market entirely? Is this going to be a spotty – good here and bad there – kind of recovery? Or a readjustment, rather than a full-blown boom? Or is prosperity right around the corner?
What say you? How things look from your vantage point?
Feel free to post below.
