Ah,
2012. Mayan scholars predicted the world would end in December. Nostradamus
pinpointed it as the year when a comet would collide with earth, causing
Armageddon.
I’m far less pessimistic.
The upcoming year won’t end
life as we know it, nor will it crush New York City’s real estate market.
Rather, the recession-depression-downturn-stagnation-retrenchment
of the American economy will, I believe, leave things looking a lot like they
do today.
Unemployment
levels: New York City seems poised to hold
on to its unfortunate place in the national unemployment picture. At present,
the jobless rate hovers around 8.9 per cent in the five boroughs, well above
the statewide average of 8.0 per cent. (The full statistical details are at: http://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/pressreleases/pruistat.shtm.)
Bonuses: With employers reluctant to add new positions in an
unpredictable economy, bonuses won’t increase. Plus, the European Crisis and
other global economic uncertainties keep wages at current levels. Read that:
less money to spend on housing.
Inventory: With sellers hesitant to enter a market that may be near its absolute bottom,
inventory is tight. I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices climb in 2012 as
demand inevitably rises.
It may all sound dismal,
but I see a silver lining.
New York City boasts a thriving rental market. With a
vacancy rate of less than one per cent, sellers willing to lease their abodes
while they wait for the rebound could do quite well.
Plus, high-end properties – listed for $5 million and
above – are strong and healthy. After all, housing looks like a great
investment when measured against other financial instruments.
And, at some
point, fence-sitting buyers will likely act on a hard, cold fact, that in 78
cities it is now cheaper to buy a house than to rent.
So 2012 doesn’t
sound too horrible. Definitely not Armageddon.
Happy New Year.
What areas in New York do you recommend please ?
ReplyDeletePrices and Rental levels ?
Brendan, I think that Upper East Side is New York’s most elegant residential neighborhood. Fifth Avenue is entirely residential in this area except for the many cultural institutions along its "Museum Mile", which is home to the Metropolitan Museum of Art, the MoMA, Whitney, and Guggenheim museums, the Frick Collection among others. Also here are residential enclaves of Sutton and Beekman Place. Carnegie Hill is the City's most coveted neighborhood for families, and Yorkville toward the East River is a popular home to young professionals and singles. Feel free to contact me directly for prices and availability at vsapo@elliman.com Thank you
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